The Failure of the 28-Point Ceasefire Plan for Ukraine: Why Diplomatic Efforts Continue to Falter

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.