A United Ireland Plebiscite Cannot Become 'A Sequel to Brexit', Analysts Caution

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."